2016 bellwether counties

2016 bellwether countiesudell funeral home obituaries

2016 bellwether counties

Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Click here, for more. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Joe Biden (631) Still, the state's worth watching. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Team up with others in your region, and help out by This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. (subject to censorship). For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Suggest an improvement, report an issue, This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president It also backed Gov. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Read about our approach to external linking. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Ron Elving . 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. That's 14 in a row. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. The divisions were everywhere. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. All rights reserved. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). List of election bellwether counties in the United States "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. We believe this was a mistake. Their hopes are real. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . What science tells us about the afterlife. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Here's why. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. It almost became religious.". The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Bellwether 2016 What, if anything, did we miss? Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period.

Stephanie Parker Obituary, Bishop O'dowd High School Famous Alumni, Articles OTHER